06.01.03.
May 18: Iraq: Bait Taken...
20 months after 911, things seem to be going pretty well for AlQuaeda...Recently, the Bush administration has taken the bait, and destroyed Saddam's secularist stalinist regime; Iraq is now open for radical Islamic ferment. Ironically, preventing nuclear materials from falling into the hands of 'criminals and terrorists' was an officially stated goal of the invasion; yet US forces seem to have never considered securing said sites until long after they were looted- you might almost think the real goal was the opposite of stated policy. In fact, 'criminals and terrorists' had the once in a lifetime opportunity to walk in and take weapons and radioactive materials from unguarded sites once the iron hand of Saddam's security apparatus had been destroyed, with no interference from American forces.
While the American warstorm raged in Iraq, AlQuaeda stood back- naturally, when the giant attacks, the smaller force backs away to observe the playing out of the spasm and its consequences. And the actions of the enraged giant, seen from AlQuaeda's perspective, are furthering the Islamist anti-western agenda just fine thank you. That the US government expected AlQuaeda attacks during the war on Iraq, (and lowered security alerts after the fall of Badhdad) demonstrates in the very least a delusive underestimation of AlQuaeda's long term strategy to force the west out of the Islamic world. Now that The Coalition has taken the bait, and sits upon the volcano, it's time again for action... Casablanca, Riyadh, Chechnya...
The shock and awe operation of 911 sent a minority US government into rampage mode at home and abroad, further crippling the US economy, splitting the UN Security Council, dividing the western alliance, alienating world opinion, and turning on our own society with a nascent Orwellian state which threatens our own liberties and economy as well; in reaction to the bullying swagger of the US administration, Europe and the rest of the world have been obliged to begin seeking ways to politically and economically reduce American power in the world; mark another win for AlQuaeda- the west divided against itself.
Iraq has been delivered to Islamist ferment and radical recruitement; what better place to recruit than a large and proud arab nation occupied by nervous and massively armed american soldiers? If the US forces leave early, it could become a free for all, a fertile field for emergent radicalism; if the US stays in an attempt to engineer a western style commercial democracy, it will be easy for terror operatives to make the occupation look more like a mega West Bank every week. Either way a win for the Islamists. More- the overthrow of Saddam removed the justfication for US bases in Saudi Arabia, and the withdrawal of US forces there- a key goal of Osama binLaden- is in progress.
AlQuaeda may have been driven from impoverished Afghanistan, but this looks like a temporary, and, for AlQuaeda, acceptable setback; most operatives are now in fragile Pakistan, where radicalism is on the increase (see recent election results), thus putting AlQuaeda closer than ever to Pakistan's nuclear arsenal. Rising radicalism in Saudi Arabia cannot be prevented by the ruling family, and that kingdom looks closer than ever to falling to the Islamists. Recent attacks in Riyadh and Casablanca are meant to keep up the pressure on the governments and economies of western-friendly regimes, and inspire the new wave of Islamic recruits which American war policy is engendering; these are tactical operations only. It is the US response to the 911 strategic strike which 20 months later is still the big show- it continues to deliver it's harvest to AlQuaeda.
One can imagine that a different American administration, less insecure over it's own legitimacy, less dependent on power-obsessed unlilateralist idealogues for it's sense of the world we live in, less inclined to blind jingoism to build support at home, might have gone a different route following 911, avoiding this trap and outsmarting AlQuaeda in the larger strategic picture. Alas.
(Read previous posting on this topic..). . . Countries do get "suckered" into wars...
Brzezinski: "Regret what? That secret operation was an excellent idea. It had the effect of drawing the Russians into the Afghan trap and you want me to regret it? The day that the Soviets officially crossed the border, I wrote to President Carter: We now have the opportunity of giving to the USSR its Vietnam war. Indeed, for almost 10 years, Moscow had to carry on a war unsupportable by the government, a conflict that brought about the demoralization and finally the breakup of the Soviet empire."
From: The Silence About 911. William Rivers Pitt. Monday 21 April 2003And of course, there was that "bungled diplomacy" in July of 1990, culminating with April Glaspie's meeting with Saddam, on the eve of the Kuwait invasion: "...we have no opinion on the Arab-Arab conflicts, like your border disagreement with Kuwait." (Transcript)
. . . And by the way, where is Saddam? Where are his weapons of mass destruction? LATimes' Robert Scheer comments...
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